A Quarterback Efficiency has many faces (and metrics)
The 'analytics' revolution has brought to the football analytics landscape multiple advanced metrics that rely on various models to measure the degree of efficiency in QB play.
Yet, efficiency can also be viewed with respect to how much does a team invest in a player. Having an ultra-efficient QB on an expensive contract is less useful when considering the opportunity costs of investing that money elsewhere on the roster. It’s not a coincidence that having a top-level QB on a rookie is the best bargain in the NFL, and has been instrumental in the success of teams as the Seahawks, Chiefs and Eagles.
That brings me to today's topic – how can we integrate the different playing-efficiency metrics with measures that focus on team-building efficiency? I built a small data-set of the top rated QBs in the most popular metrics: DVOA, DYAR, EPA, and ANY/A. I also included data from spotrac.com on each player contract’s and how it account in terms of the average percentage of his team’s cap. Displaying the various playing metrics with the contract data offers a clearer picture of the best bargains that teams are able to ‘collect’ (quick note: I exclude from this analysis players on a rookie contracts. The rookie wage scale makes such players bargains by definition. My focus is on veterans).
Let’s start with DVOA (measure for better value per-play over an average QB in same situation). The plot below presents the top-8 veteran QBs in DVOA rating this year (stats updated through week 2). One data point stand-out: Patriots QB Cam Newton ranks at number 10 with a 19.5% DVOA, suggesting he is almost 20% better than the average QB in those game situations. Why a bargain, you ask? His veteran contract counts as a mere 0.8% Of the Patriots' cap!! This list consists of some of the best QBs in the league, but their contracts take more than 10% of their teams’ cap. This is the first evidence for what TheRinger.com Kevin Clark lamented on last week. The second plot shows DVOA values for all veterans on Football Outsiders. Again, Newton stands-out as an insane outlier this early in the season.
Next, let’s examine DYAR (how a QB's performance compared to a replacement level, adjusted). This time, I plotted the top-12 veteran QBs, and again, Newton stand-out. In the full veteran sample (a total of 22 players), the results remain consistent and Newton is alone as an amazing bargain for his production and efficiency.
The last plot presents two other efficiency measures. First, many analysts love to use EPA (total expected points added for low average plays, weighted by downs). Now, for the leaders among veteran QBs, Newton has some company with the Dolphins’ starter Fitzpatrick. Both have impressive EPA values, and their contracts are much cheaper compared to other members of this list (Fitz’s contract accounts for less than 3% of Miami’s cap this year). Finally, ANY/A (adjusted Net yards per pass attempt) offers the last evidence for how good of a decision the Patriots made this offseason with Newton. His ANY/A is 7.61, number 9 in the league, and stand all alone in terms of his contract value among these measures.
Overall, Newton's play has been above expectations so far. His base stats are also impressive (68.4% completion and 714 yards passing, in addition to 149 yards and 4 rushing TDs). Yes, I know it early, and his week 3 showing was not as stellar, but the Patriots stand at 2-1 (after week 3), and are one badly executed play from being 3-0. After losing the best QB of all time this offseason, the degree of uncertainty about the Pats QB has never been that high. Yet again, Bill Belichick and Co. have shown their shrewdness in team building and coaching.
Next week, Newton and the Patriots visit the Superbowl champs, raising the stakes even more. One thing is for-sure, despite a crazy offseason, once again the Patriots showed they are experts in finding value where other teams are still lagging - just one more reason for their sustained success in the last 20 years.
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