On Friday, January 26th, 2024, Jurgen Klopp announced he will be stepping down as Liverpool manager at the end of the season. In the following weeks, the web filled with Klopp’s top “fill in the blank” lists (performances, games, comebacks, goals, seasons, moments, and so on).
Several days later, when a quadruple season was still possible, I started thinking: how can a 30-year data-nerd fan write his version of a farewell? After a few weeks of data collection, long nights of writing and rewriting, I present here a data-based ranking of Liverpool’s nine seasons under Klopp.
Before we begin, some guidelines:
The comparison is across seasons, which means there are nine total entries. We are measuring how each season stacks against the other eight and not how a measure of every Liverpool team versus the competition in the PL (Premier League) or Europe.
The ranking is data-driven, and thus based on a set of popular performance metrics (collected from fbref.com). The main metrics I use for the analysis:
Goal Difference (GD) and Goal Difference per game (GD/90).
Expected goal difference (xGD) and Expected goal difference per game (xGD/90).
Pts./MP (average point per game).
ELO Ratings: complement the main metrics. ELO is more dynamic and offers information on changes in performance level throughout the season.
Why this data? These metrics are some of the most popular and extensively used in soccer analytics articles (one more), books, and data-based blog posts (more, and more).
The rankings: We start from the bottom of the list and work our way to the top. Each season is described using the performance metrics as one pillar, and several data-based storylines, trends and anecdotes as the other.
Makes sense? Sounds interesting? I sure hope so, let’s get this list going:
(9) 2015-2016: The arrival
Season recap in 150 words or less: On October 8th, 2015, Jurgen Klopp signed a 3-year deal to become Liverpool’s manager. At the time, the team was in 10th place, having won 3 of the first 8 games of the season. In his inaugural press conference, other than the still funny “Normal one” comment, Klopp asked for patience and time to get the team rolling. Indeed, it took some time to see an improvement: the team won less than half (13) of the remaining 30 league games, draw 9 and lost 8 more to finish in 8th place with no European qualification.
Ranking the era. The performance metrics are pretty straightforward and hard to dispel:
this was Liverpool’s worst season under Klopp. Both available metrics (GD and GD/90) are dead last across the nine years, and reflect an inability to impose a style as almost a third of the fixtures end in a a draw. The third metric (Pts./MP, 8th in the PL that year) further emphasize this point - Klopps’s arrival was slow in transforming Liverpool from a (still) middling and inconsistent team.
Potentially good, but still inconsistent. The data points to a fairly bad season. Yet, the potential of the team occasionally reared its head like the superb 4-1 win over Man.City, or a 6-0 performance against Aston Villa. The chart below tracks the last metric, ELO ratings, for the entire season. We can see several spikes of good performance as well as drops following frustrating draws and losses (1 win in 6 games to begin 2016). By the middle of February, the Reds hit rock-bottom (fall to 9th in the table). An improvement over the final third of the season (winning 4 of the last 9 games) helped finishing the season with the 5th best ELO rating in the league (and 9th over the Klopp era) but only 8th place in the table.
Still a Knock-out experts. The main success story of this season is the team’s performance in knock-out competition. First, going all the way to the league cup final, losing 1-3 to Man.City. But primarily, the team’s run in the Europa league. Focusing on the ELO data over the last 3 months of the season (March - May), the improvement is evident as well. After only 2 wins in the group stage, Liverpool's improvement in the league beginning from February 2016 also showed in the knock-out rounds as the Reds eliminate bitter rivals Man.United at the round of 16, then beating Klopp’s former team Borossia Dortmund in the Quarterfinals with an epic 4-3 win at Anfield. The run continued to the final where Liverpool succumbed 1-3 to Sevilla.
This was a tough first season as both team and manager had to get to know each other with no prep time at all. The bitter end of the season with the loss to Sevilla and failure to qualify to Europe might have been a blessing as it allowed ample needed time for all to adapt, and get ready for Liverpool’s first full season under Klopp.
(8) 2020-2021: Up-and-down, and up again
Season recap in 150 words or less: Following a first title in 30 years, Liverpool began a second COVID affected season looking like real champions, losing one game in their first 16 games of the season. When 2020 ended, the champs were still in 1st place in the table. With the new year, a real regression was coming marred by injuries and bad play, ending early the title defense effort as the team fell all the way to 8th place. As regressions go, the Reds were able to recover and finish the season in a respectable 3rd place - securing another CL season, but a distant 17 pts away from Man.City who reclaimed their PL title.
Ranking the era. The 2020-21 season does not look good in our performance metrics.
This is the second worst season with an 8th rank in GD and GD/90. The advanced metrics of xGD and xGD/90 also rank second to last (in 7 seasons of data). So where is the late-season recovery in performance? Based on Pts./MP, we have some evidence for the Reds ability to gain points despite medicare play with a value that is 7th across the Klopp era (third in the PL that year).
The highs: With the summer additions of Thiago and Diogo Jota to strengthen the attack, the team was in great form for the first 14 games: 9 wins, 4 draws and a single loss kept the champs atop of table by late-December. The numbers of this dominant run are impressive as the team outscored their main performance metrics (GD = +17, xGD = +10) and showed incredible resilience to gain points (45% of the full season points were gained in 14 weeks, about a third of the season). More data? Check the ELO chart and the peak performance through December 2020. Other than the advanced numbers, this run included some history as Liverpool broke the record of consecutive home wins, setting it on 68 before finally losing to Burnley on Jan. 21, 2021.
Going down and straightening out: A steep regression was coming and started in early 2021. Beginning in January, Liverpool won only 3 of 14 games (including 6 consecutive home losses) and dropped all the way to 8th place by March. The grim results are reflected in the numbers with a severe underperformance of negative GD (-6) and not too impressive xGD (+5). The ELO chart clearly demonstrate the drop in ratings from January to March.
With the title defense out of hand and facing the prosepct of no European football for the first time since 2016, Liverpool recovered to win 8 of the their last 10 games, finishing 3rd and securing European competition after a strong late-season run (outscoring their 9.6 xGD with +15 GD) that ended the season with ELO rating that ranked 6th across the Klopp era.
The 2020-21 season was a real grind, with injuries to many key players: Virgil out since October 2020 with ACL tear, Matip missing games early on, and then ruled out for the season by February, new forward Jota missed 21 games, Fabinho missed 11, and the list goes on and on. The Reds hoped that the strong finish of the season (special mentioning to Allison’s memorable goal at West Brom) would lead (along with a better injury luck) to a renewed title chase the following season.
(7) 2022-2023: Warning signs everywhere you look
Season recap in 150 words or less: The season began with a very optimistic view after beating Man.City to secure Jurgen’s last missing domestic cup (the community shield). From that point-on, the team failed to click, and seemed like the effects of the previous grueling season (playing 63 games in all competitions) were everywhere as inconsistency and mediocrity ruled the day. A terrible start for 2023 (one win in 7 games) dropped Liverpool all the way to 8th place by April. Despite a late season wake-up and improved form (7 wins in the final 10 games), the damage was too much, and Liverpool ended the season with the second worst finish in the Klopp era: 5th place, and no CL.
Ranking the era. Our performance metrics scream mediocrity. Looking at GD and GD/90,
this season is ranked 7th. Of the seven seasons of xG data, 2022-23 ranks last for xGD, and xGD/90. The ability to gain points was even worse, and ranked second to last as Liverpool won only 19 games and lost nine (the lowest number of wins, and most losses since Klopp’s first season).
Cannot gain any momentum: Summer 2022 was short, and included the first major changes to a Klopp’s team in a while with Sadio Mane leaving and the much-debated arrival of Darwin Nunez (club record fee of £85 million).
From the get-go, the team failed to establish any rhythm - winning a game or two, followed by consecutive draws or losses. Starting in August through April 2023 (Matchweeks 1-29), almost all metrics point to substantial underperformance. On the face of it, GD seems respectable (+15). However, if we replace the two outlier results of this period (see below) with average values, we end-up with a more indicative GD (+0.4) for this period.
You prefer xGD? It drops from +9.9 to +4.42 when adjusting for outliers. One more way to view this stretch is to compute the gap between goals scored and xG. This results with a negative gap (-3.8) for those 29 games, and a horrendous (-13.7) after the outliers adjustment.
Speaking of these outliers, they represent the only two bright spots of the season: first, a record breaking 9-0 thrashing of Bournemouth (first win of the season). Then, my personal (and only) highlight of the year: a 7-0 explosion at Anfieid to beat Man.United (7 goals from 8 SoT, outperforming 2.8 xG). However, just to show they are consistently inconsistent, two consecutive losses followed that high to drop Liverpool back to 8th place.
A Good shift: Klopp kept looking for answers, and seemed to finally find one when he shifted wing-back star Trent Alexander-Arnold to a more central position. The pros and cons of this tactical move are still debated, but not the short-term results: it kick-started a 10 games unbeaten run (7 wins) that shot Liverpool up the table, finishing the season at 5th.
The up-and-down season is evident by the ELO ratings. The chart illustares the gradual drop from matchweek 1 to the early April rock-bottom and then, a small increase to finish the year. Similar to our 8th ranked season, the strong finish resulted with a final ELO rating (1943) that is actually fourth over the Klopp era (and 5th best in the EPL that year), but is closer to the average ELO rating (1938.12) when considering the entire 9-year tenure.
This season was a constant struggle to establish any consistency with never ending mental and physical set-backs (more injuries to Thiago, Virgil and other top players). Liverpool needed to re-freshen the squad (which happened that summer), and mostly some time-off to re-establish their strength and identity.
(6) 2016-2017: Building - Stage 1
Season recap in 150 words or less: Klopp’s first full season at the helm was a learning experience for the team adapting to the famous Gegenpressing system, and Klopp himself adjusting to the PL schedule and expectations. It was a season of progress as the Reds hovered around the top-4 and played competitive football throughout the season. By the half-way mark, Klopp’s boys jumped to 2nd place having beaten powerhouse Man. City, and eventual champs Chelsea. A run of bad games to start the new year (one win in 7 games) tarnished any title hopes. An improvement over the final stretch (8 wins in 12 games) helped Liverpool secure a top-4 finish and CL competition for the first time under Klopp.
Ranking the era. The performance metrics point to a relative improvement compared to
Klopp’s first truncated season. The indicators of GD and GD/90 are ranked 6th across the 9-years. Slightly better was the ability to gain points despite not great performances with an average of 2 Pts./MP (only 6 losses to 22 wins), which is ranked 5th over the entire era.
New faces and learning to Gegenpress. In the summer of 2016, the team began transforming the squad and aligning it with Klopp’s vision. Some non-fits were sold or released and the team bought essential pieces Sadio Mane and Gigi Wijnaldum. Those foundations helped push the infamous Gegenpressing style that Klopp instilled using high press as the main tool to create more goal scoring opportunities.
The fast attacking system delivered right of-the-bat with strong performances against Arsenal (4-3) in Matchweek 1, hammering champions Leicster city (4-1), defeating eventual champions Chelsea on the road, a 6-1 over Watford (17 shots on target), and more. After defeating Man.City on December 31, the Reds were in 2nd place in the table having scored 46 goals in 19 games (2.42 per game), and an impressive GD/90 (1.31) to capture 75% of the available points (13 wins and 4 draws).
Still learning or an eventual regression? A less than imporessive second half of the year included 4 more losses, all to lower-tier teams. The aggressive attacking style was vulnerable when weaker teams set-back near their goal, and launched effective counter-attacks. As evidence, all six losses were to teams ranked in the bottom half of the table.
The ELO chart displays the gradual adjustment and improvement reaching its apex on late December 2016. Then, we see a decline in performance sparkled with deep drops illustrating losses to cellar-dwellers like Swansea (15th place finish) and Hull city (relegated to Championship). A recovery in form (8 wins in the final 12 games) helped finish the season with ELO value that is second to last over the 9-years era.
The 2016-17 season can be viewed as a slow mutual adjustment of manager to his team and vice versa. Klopp’s aggressive style helped secure points against top competition (12 of 18 available points against top-3 finishers), but at the same time, lose points to much weaker opponents. Overall, this was a season of learning that included roster tweaks and installing a system that served as the foundation to multiple seasons at the top of our list.
(5) 2023-2024: Squad renovations, successful run, and unexpected ending
Season recap in 150 words or less: Entering Klopp’s 9th season, Liverpool sought to regain its championship form with new acquisitions replacing few departing iconic club figures (Henderson, Milner, Firmino). Befitting the many squad changes, performance was uneven with frustrating results joining impressive wins. Still, by the halfway point, the Reds were atop the league. Klopp’s surprising retirement announcement in late January did not disrupt a good run of results that included the one silverware of the season (the EFL cup). Yet, many of the good results were a dramatic and/or come-from behind games, and an obvious signal of instability entering the last stretch of the season. A surprise early exit from the Europa league (Klopp’s lone missing title) joined only five wins in the last 11 games, killing any title hopes, and ending with a 3rd place finish as Liverpool entered a summer of even bigger changes.
Ranking the era. The data suggests this season was textbook average (not bad
considering all the changes) as most performance metrics are very close to the 9-year overall averages. GD and GD/90 are ranked 5th. The advanced metrics (xGD and xGD/90) are a bit stronger with 3rd place rank, and Pts./MP is 4th which reflects the ability to gain points in multiple comeback wins or draws despite middling performance.
New faces adjusting well, but underlying bad signals. Early results of the squad renovation (mostly the midfield) were mixed. McAllister struggled to adjust to his new #6 role, and was sent-off early in his home debut. Endo needed time to learn the speed and physicality of the league. On the other hand, youngester Curtis Jones showed much progress, and Newcomer Sobo had a terrific start as the team won 7 of its first 10 games. Still, performance felt uneven and worrying signals surfaced frequently including a failure to score on 34 shots (2.3 xG) in a frustrating home draw with Man.United, or needing a 95-minute equalizer in Luton, again showing inablility to punch a winning goal (24 shots, 2.6 xG).
Uninspiring come from behind performances in the Europa league (where Liverpool were the heavy favorites) only exacerbated concerns that the Reds’ overall form does not fit the results. The underperformance was clear from the data with a negative (-1.2) gap between goals scored and xG during those first 19 games. The ELO chart illustrates the uneven form with few peak results but also deep trenches in the ratings data until January 2024.
An improvement? Well… tumultuous, and uneven would be a fair description for the second half of the season. Three weeks into 2024, Klopp made his surprise announcement, but even that did not stop a streak of 9 wins in 11 games with exciting performances at Anfield: 4-0 against Newcastle (7.0 xG, 12 SoT), and Chelsea (2.9 xG, 13 SoT). A 119-minute header from Virgil to win the EFL cup (for a record 10th time) capped a super impressive stretch of games. Still, some of the results during the run were comeback wins after early deficits, many of them at home (Luton and Brighton scored in the 2nd and 12th minutes). A home draw with Man.City was another come-from-behind game that the Reds dominated, but failed to take advantage of multiple scoring chances (2.7 xG, 5 SoT).
Eventually, the results caught-up with the middling form and a 2-2 draw at Old Trafford (despite 27 shots, 3.6 xG) began a series of 8 games to end the season with the Reds winning only three, and losing their grip on the top spot. Few of the dreadful performances included a first away derby loss in 14 years, and the first home loss of the season to Crystal Palace. Focusing on the second half of the season, the data show that bad results were expected as the Reds ended with a large negative goals scored to xG difference (-6.8). Go back to the ELO chart above, and we can clearly see the crush of the performance beginning with a draw at Man.United, and ending the season with an ELO value (1901) that was the 3rd worse in the entire Klopp era!!
2023-24 was a tumoltous season that began with a whole new midfield, more injuries to key players, an annoument in the middle of a great run of results, the emergence of Klopp’s kids, comeback wins and debilitating losses. Considering all that, ending the year as average is evidence of the strong foundation that Klopp built, a foundation that now faces even more changes after his final game.
(4) 2017-2018: Consistency achieved
Season recap in 150 words or less: fueled by the progress of Klopp’s first full season, and with the summer addition of Salah, Oxlade-Chamberlain and Robertson, the team felt ready to compete for the PL title, and a first CL appearance in three years. The offense clicked early, leading to numerous “dazzling attacking displays”. The defense? Well, this was the relative weakness resulting in losing opportunities in games that either began with conceding early or allowing late goals. Even the arrival of Van Dijk could not stabilize the defense, and despite many exciting attacking performances, the Reds leaked goals and points, and were never a real threat to the PL title, finishing 4th for the second consecutive year.
Ranking the era. The 2017/18 season was an improvement on its predecessor with better
performance metrics like GD, GD/90, xGD, and xGD/90, all ranked 4th overall. At the same time, the defensive struggles and inability to beat mediocare and bad competition (3 draws and a loss to the three relegated clubs) were central to a Pts./MP value this is good for the 6th spot over 9 years.
Summer transfer slam dunk and attacking boost: The new attacking weapons (Salah, Oxlade-Chamberlain) brought in the summer were a perfect fit to Klopp’s aggressive style and boy, it showed: Liverpool finished second to Man.City in almost all offensive metrics lncluding GD and xGD, outscoring their xG by 12 goals and the total goals scored (84), is their 5th highest in the Premier League era. New superstar Mo Salah exploded with 43 goals in all competitions (golden boot winner with 32 league goals, outscoring his own xG by 8 goals), and his forward-line companions provided strong support (Firminio with 26 goals, Mane with 20).
The attacking style contributed to multiple multi-goal performances: 5-0 over Swansea city and Watford, 4-0 over Arsenal, Brighton, and Bournemouth, and more. While the offense worked well, the defense was the weak part conceding 38 goals (5 more than their xGA), and contributing to the team falling behind or allowing opponents to comeback on too many occasions. The much-coveted addition of Van Dijk in the winter transfer window slightly improved the defense, but not enough as the Reds conceded 13 goals to 12.3 xGA in the 16 PL games after Virgil’s arrival (slightly better than conceding 25 goals to 21.5 xGA before big Virg signed).
Our last performance indicator, ELO rating, displays the relative consistency of the season. Overall, the attack led the way and the team showed constant improvement. The occasional set-backs and and lacking defensive performances are also part of the journey that ended with ELO rating that is relatively low (6th over the era) but still represented a significant increase compared to the first two seasons under Klopp.
European nights are back in full force. Liverpool’s strong attack/leaky defense approach contributed to early exits in most domestic competitions. Yet, the Reds first champions league campaign since 2014 was almost perfect.
After a slow start, the team exploded with 20 goals enroute to winning the remaining four group-stage games (including two 7-0). Porto was quickly dispatched in the round of 16, followed by the Reds knocking-out bitter rival Man.City at the quarter-finals with 3-0 win at Anfield and 2-1 away. The semis against Roma were another multi-goal affairs with a 5-2 explosion in the first leg, and a 4-2 defeat in the second leg with too many defensive errors. Still, it was enough to qualify for their first CL final since 2007. That magic run (a single loss until the final, GD of +27, ourscoring 19.1 xGD) ended with a 1-3 loss to Real Madrid in a game marred by Salah’s early injury, and a horrendous goalkeeping performance from Karius.
2017-18 ranks near the top, and for a good reason. The team successfully embraced Klopp’s aggressive attacking style, and consistently improved on offense. The Achilles heel was the defense that contributed (along with few horrible goalkeeping fiascoes) to dropped points which prevented Liverpool from seriously contending for all trophies. From a 9-year overview, this season was the final tuning of the Klopp machine and the last entry in our ranking that ended with no titles.
(3) 2021-22: Two wins away
Season recap in 150 words or less: following a horrendous 2020-21, the Reds welcomed back the skeleton of their defense (Virgil, Matip, Fabinho, bringing promising center-back Konate) hoping for a better year. A shaky first half of the season did include few big wins, but too many dropped points in unlikely games placed Liverpool in 3rd, 14 points behind leaders Man.City by late December 2021. The second half of the season was a masterpiece: Over 19 league games, the Reds won 16 (3 draws) and closed the gap to a single point. Despite barely missing on the PL title, Liverpool finished with the 2nd highest points total for a runner-up. The 2022 run also included two trophies as Liverpool won its 8th FA cup and 9th EFL cup. A treble of cups was in-play with a third CL final in 5 years, but Liverpool (again) lost a close 0-1 to Real Madrid.
Ranking the era. 2021-22 is arguably the best statistical season of Klopp’s reign. Across
the board, our performance metrics of GD, GD/90, xGD, and xGD/90 are ranked first with small gaps over number 2. The metrics that harm this season’s place on the totem pole are Pts./MP that is ranked 3rd, and ELO which ended 2nd over the 9-years (2035).
Good, but not enough. The early part of the season was characterized by several big wins led by thumping Man.United 5-0 at Old Trafford (3.4 xG, 8 SoT), a 5-0 over Watford, two 4-0 and several 3-0/3-1 sparkled in between. During that run, Liverpool scored 2.63 goals per game (50 goals in 19 games, also exceeding 29.7 xGD). Still, few shaky performances led to unnecessary points drop including a shocking loss at Leicester city (despite 20 shots and 2.3 xG) in the final game of 2021. This good but not great run resulted with steady shifts between 2nd and 4th place, and is clearly evident in the ELO chart with high-end wins followed by drops in form (5 draws and two losses) leading to 3rd place by January 2022.
With new year comes (whole) new performance. 2022 began with the Reds in 3rd place, 14 points from leaders Man.City, and with about 13% chance of closing the title gap (per 538 odds). Klopp’s boys had other ideas, and after a 2-2 draw at Chelsea, they won the next 10 league games with a GD of +25!!! (the offense kept pace but the defense became a fortress, conceding 2 goals in 10 games). In between, the Reds qualified to the CL quarter-finals, and the EFL final (beating Chelsea in a penalty shootout to win the first cup of the year). The winning run ended with a draw against Man.City, but Liverpool kept pace, winning six of the last 7 games to finish within 1 point of the title and accruing the 2nd highest points total ever for a runner-up.
The pain of losing the PL title in the final week (Man.City were down at the half!!) was compounded with the events of May 28th, 2022: the CL final. The Reds dominated the game but lost 0-1 thanks to a supernova performance by Real Madrid goalkeeper (24 total shots, 9 SoT, 2.2 xG and 0.9 xGA). Another look at the ELO rating chart above illustrates the dominance of the second half of the 2021-22 season as the Reds finished 2 wins away from a quadruple season.
You may wonder how can such a statistical juggernaut ended 3rd in our ranking? Other than encouraging you to read the top-2 finishers, here is a more data-based reason: If we compare performance using the GD and xGD difference (GD and xGD values are pretty close for the top-3 seasons), the 2021-22 season comes in 3rd. One more? The top-2 seasons had what this season was missing: winning the biggest trophies (yes, OK that not a direct data reason, but still pretty important).
(2) 2019-20: Ending a 30-year drought
Season recap in 150 words or less: Coming so close the previous season, the European champions entered 2019-2020 with a clear mission: capture that elusive PL title. From Matchweek 1, the Reds looked confident and strong as they won 18 of their first 19 games, building a 13-point lead at the top of the table by January 2020. The first loss of the year came late in Feb. 2020, but was a mere speedbump until the global COVID-19 pandemic stopped play for 3 months. At that point, Liverpool held an insurmountable 25-point lead atop the table, already broke several records and were almost guaranteed to end a 30-year title drought. When the PL resumed play (June 2020), the Reds played in 2nd gear but secured the title in Matchweek 31. They finished the season with 99 points (2nd highest ever), an 18-point gap over runner-up Man.City, and a place in history.
Ranking the era. From a statistical standpoint, this season was heading towards the top
until the league shutdown. The drop in play after securing the title harms the final numbers: GD and GD/90 are 3rd across the 9-years, the advanced metrics of xGD and xGD/90 are much-worse 5th across 7 seasons of data. Unsurprisingly for a title winning season, Pts./MP is 1st as Liverpool won a record 32 games overall, and 18 at Anfield.
Efficient, resilient, unstoppable. The new season began with more trophies (beating Chelsea to win the UEFA super cup). However, a serious injury to Allison raised concerns whether (newly-signed) backup Adrian can hold the line for a while. Adrian held his own as the Reds ran through the league with a historic stretch of 27 wins in 29 games until the shutdown in March 2020. The dominance of the unbeaten streak was evident as Liverpool dispatched their main title competitors along the way: a 3-1 November win over Man.City to increase the lead atop the table to 9 points, and a 4-0 at Leicester city (2nd place at that time) on boxing day to finish 2019 with a 13-point lead. During that run, Klopp’s boys also won the FIFA World club championship cup with brilliant performances by Bobby Firmino and established themselves as the top team in the world. By late February 2020, the Reds pulled away at the top as the streak extended to 27 wins in 28 games and a 25-point gap until a surprise loss at Watford. When the season was halted, Liverpool had a record 81 out of 87 points (27 wins, 1 loss and 1 draw). The ELO chart highlight the run of results with peak rating (2091.03) after the 25th win in 26 games, and still high value (2026.4) when the games stopped.
What does the data say about the unprecedented run? While the wins and points accumulation were impressive, the performance itself was not overwhelming, and appeared more like a clinical ability to preserve early leads and secure wins. Until the March stoppage, the offense was very good with 66 goals in 29 games (2.2 per game, overperform 55.3 xG). Same for the defense that conceded 21 goals (on 27.4 xGA). Overall, the gap between GD and xGD was good, but not amazing (+17.1). Going back to the ELO chart, we see a gradual increase in rating reflecting a steady, consistent performance that allowed the Reds to establish a big lead at the top of the table.
Games stop, resume and a title party. On March 12th, the league suspended games with no clarity on the future of the season. When play resumed on June 21st, Liverpool held a double-digit lead atop the table, but still technically did not win the title. With no crowds and clearly rusted, the Reds dropped points in the first game back, but then returned to form with a big 4-0 the following week. A day later they secured their 19th title after Man.City lost points. Winning the title by Matchweek 31 (with 7 games left) was another record - the earliest ever the PL title was clinched.
Unsurprisingly, the remainder of the season was one big party as the performance level of the new champs dipped, and the results followed (4 wins in the last 7 games). The entire post-lockdown period included a decrease in performance that was evident in the ELO rating, finishing 3rd over the 9-year era. Still, the amazing run until lockdown was the foundation of a 99-points season, a record for Liverpool and 2nd highest ever in the PL.
The 2019-2020 season was a culmination of two years in which Klopp’s boys finished with 97 and 99 points, won one title (lost another by a single point), won European and global trophies and asserted themselves as perhaps the most dominant team in the world. As our ranking is stats-based, this year is harmed by the final post-lockdown stretch of games and thus finishes 2nd in the Klopp era (or perhaps 1A??).
(1) 2018-19: Almost perfect
Season recap in 150 words or less: In an attempt to patch their leaking defense, Liverpool acquired Goalkeeper Allison (for a record fee), and added Fabinho and Keita. The Reds began their season unbeaten in 20 games, and gained a 7-point lead atop the table by January, breaking records for consecutive wins (and home wins). Slip-ups early in 2019 (loss at Etihad, four draws in 8 games) allowed Man.City to catch-up, and take a 1-point lead at the top of the table, one they will not relinquish to the end despite Liverpool recovering to win their last 9 games. The Reds finish with the highest point total for runner-ups (97). A fine compensation was the magical CL run: a surprising slow start was followed with dismantling of Bayern and Porto before the Barcelona fiasco/magic leading to a second consecutive final in which the Reds beat Tottenham for their 6th European title.
Ranking the era. A season that looked like the peak of the Klopp machine has the stats to
back it up: all our performance metrics (GD, GD/90, xGD, and xGD/90) are ranked a close 2nd across the 9-year era. The Reds accumulated 2.55 Pts./MP, and the total of 97 points was their 2nd highest ever. They also set a record number of wins in the PL era (30; until breaking it the following season).
A dominant machine to begin the season. The summer additions of Allison, Fabinho, Keita, and Shakiri seemed like the last pieces in Klopp’s puzzle as the Reds kick-start the season on a 20 games unbeaten streak, dispatching middling and average competitions with impressive form and overperforming their xGD (+25.5) by almost 15 goals. After a draw at Arsenal in early November, Liverpool won 9 straight with a GD of +24 (27-3) and built a 7-point lead atop the table to end 2018. The steady performance to start the season is displayed in the ELO chart, including the jump at the end 2018.
Set-back and comeback, but not enough. A 1-2 Loss at Man.City to start 2019 began a bad stretch of lost points with only four wins until Matchweek 29. The uneven run (blowout wins over Bournemouth and Waford joining multiple 0-0/1-1 draws) is evident with a mediocre GD (+9) and a stagnant to slightly dipping rating in the ELO chart above. This inconsistent form allowed Man.City to close the gap, and overtake Liverpool atop the table with a 1-point lead, with less than 10 games left in the season. The Reds recovered to win their final 9 games but the champs showed resilience and sustained their 1-point edge to protect their title. Over the last few months of 2018-19, Liverpool and Man.City seem to be in a league of their own as the season ended with a 25-point gap between Klopp’s boys at 2nd place and Chelsea at third.
Make some room in the European Trophy cabinet. The CL campaign started pretty bad as the Reds seem to still lament the painful 2018 finals loss. They endured 3 losses in the group stage (all away games) and needed a tough win in the last game versus Napoli (single goal on 3.0 xG and 23 shots) to secure qualification. Against Bayern Munich in the round of 16, Liverpool again started slow with a goal-less draw at Anfield (only 2 SoT) but delivered a strong performance with a road win at Munich (3 goals on 6 SoT, outperform xG by +1.9).
After dispatching Porto in the quarter finals, the semis matched-up Liverpool with Barcelona. A disappointing 0-3 loss (only 3 SoT) at the 1st leg left very little hope to return to the final. The 2nd leg at Anfield can be described as Epic (or magical, legendary, heroic) as the Reds shock Messi and Co. with a 4-0 win (7 SoT, outperform 2.3 xG) including a 3-minute 2-goal craziness from Wijnaldum (54th and 56th minutes) to make it 3-0, and an orgasm in the 79th minute with Trent and Origi brilliance. After the miracle at Anfield, the Reds were not going to lose the all-English final, and secured a 6th European title with a rather dull 2-0 win over Tottenham.
Despite winning only 1 trophy (perhaps the biggest one), 2018-19 is arguably the finest season of Klopp’s reign (most of our advanced numbers are fairly close with the 2nd and 3rd places). What makes this season number one on the list is the total experience: winning a first European title in more than a decade, amazing performances giving everything they can in the PL title race and coming a close second. The end of this season was the strongest foundation possible for the team’s explosive performance early in the following season that brought that elusive PL title.
Final words
Writing about the Klopp era with data and numbers is a double-edge proposition. On the one hand, this is the era when Liverpool fully utilzied a “Moneyball approach” that was instrumental in the construction of all the amazing teams on this list (and it will remain so in the future with the return of Michael Edwards). At the same time, Klopp is so much chrisma and emotion, a manager (and probably a person) that made Liverpool fans fall in-love with their team all over again.
I talked a lot about data, and used a lot of it as evidence supporting Liverpool’s rightful return to a its place among Europe’s finest. The manager’s aggressive and attacking style made this team interesting and fun again, and led to all these records and amazing numbers. But more than all of that, it was Klopp’s neverending expressions of emotion on the sidelines, the way he talked about the team and (perhaps more important) the city, and the care he showed for everything this team is, that’s what made Liverpool the center of the lives of so many fans after too many years of boredom, disappointment and mediocrity.
I may be a data nerd that just wrote 6500 words to explain how each season stacks statistically against the others, but more than anything I believe that making the Reds exciting and the fun (and yes, winning) is probably Klopp’s greatest achievement over those 9 years, and for that we all say: DANKE JURGEN.
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